Air France executives have dismissed a report in the French financial newspaper Les Echos which claims that the airline could face a "liquidity problem" in 2010. The report, published under the headline "Air France: les risques d'une année noire" (the risks of a black year) says that accountants from the accounting firm Secafi, hired by Air France's works council, have painted a couple of pictures regarding the airline's financial strength, none of them very pretty.

Under the first scenario, an upswing in traffic occurs at the end of the 2009-10 financial year and oil stays around $61 a barrel, and Air France, taking advantage of reduced costs, could keep its losses to a minimum, or even break even.

More realistic, says the report, is the second scenario, in which traffic numbers stay sluggish, revenue declines 9%, but oil stays low (around $58 a barrel), which is "more or less" what the airline faced in late May. But the airline would still post a loss that's much higher than the 184 million euro loss posted in the 2008-2009 financial year, and revenue declines in the past month have approached 20%, not 9%.

Then there's the worst scenario, which a decline in revenue of over 9% but oil reaching $70 a barrel. "In this scenario, the operating loss would cause us to consume more than 1.5 billion euros in cash in 2009... this means that it wouldn't be a year before the company runs out of cash," says the report. A "black year" indeed.

Pretty serious stuff, especially as oil is currently trading in the low sixties. Even if oil sticks around $61-63 a barrel, scenario #1 isn't likely, as air traffic probably won't rebound for the airline before the end of the 2009-10 financial year. And it's unlikely that oil prices will be around $58 a barrel for a long period, as they are in scenario #2. Still, it might be taking things too far to say that the airline could run out of cash within a year; the airline issued over 600 million euros worth of bonds last month to finance new aircraft purchases, and perhaps they could do the same in the future if needed.

Unsurprisingly, Air France management isn't buying the gloom-and-doom forecasts. In a statement, the airline said that "the Executive Management of Air France-KLM wishes to make clear that in no respect does it validate any of these imaginary scenarios [and] that its financial position is, and will remain, extremely healthy in the coming years." The statement went on to say that Air France had 4.5 billion euros on hand at the end of June, along with 1.2 billion euros in available credit lines.

Labels: Air France, Air France-KLM

It's also trying to wrap up a deal to take over Austrian Airlines in its entirety, although the plan has dragged on for a long time, thanks to roadblocks from the anti-trust unit of the European Commission, which is concerned about a lack of competition on some European routes. Lufthansa has already apparently agreed to more concessions, including dropping flights between Vienna and Frankfurt and Vienna and Geneva, but it's unclear whether or not this will be enough for the EC.

Austrian has been bleeding red ink recently; the airline lost 429 million euros last year, has more than one billion euros in debt, and has already burned through two thirds of a 200 million euro injection from the Austrian government that it received this spring. Its chairman has said that if the Lufthansa deal falls through, the airline would need over one billion euros in new capital. Austrian's future is being increasingly called into question as the prospects for the deal's success look dimmer.

And meanwhile, Lufthansa is also struggling (although not to the same extent as Austrian). The Austrian deal, with a deadline of July 31, is still dragging on and on and becoming ever more expensive, and Lufthansa is looking at ways to lower acquisition costs. It also reluctantly purchased fifty percent of bmi from its founder, Sir Michael Bishop, who for many years held an option that would force Lufthansa to buy his stake. Bishop actually ended up suing Lufthansa back in May in order to make Lufthansa proceed faster with the deal.

But the deals with Austrian, bmi and Brussels have contributed to Lufthansa's increasing financial pressures. The airline today announced that it would roll out a costs-saving initiative called "Climb 2011," which calls for savings of one billion euros ($1.4 billion) per year starting in 2011. The plan focuses on lowering passenger costs as well as shedding 20% of its 2,000 office jobs in its passenger airline core business. Lufthansa has also said that it will defer delivery of some aircraft from 2010.

Depending upon how many further obstacles it receives from the EC, Lufthansa might just decide to axe the takeover of Austrian, especially as the costs of a takeover mount and Austrian's financial situation becomes more and more perilous. Austrian could be looking less and less attractive, especially while Lufthansa digests the the financial burden of taking over bmi and Brussels. With the global airline industry stuck in a deep downturn, Lufthansa needs make sure that it doesn't bite off more than it can chew, and should concentrate on solidifying its core operations - after all, that airline empire is no good if the carrier at the center of things isn't strong.

Labels: Austrian Airlines, bmi, Brussels Airlines, Lufthansa

AirTran recently became the second airline to outfit its entire fleet with Wi-Fi (after Virgin America). "But with your newfound freedom to surf the internet, comes a little responsibility," says the airline in the introduction to "Internetiquette," a brochure that will be found in every AirTran seatback pocket. The 'manual' says that it will "[allow] you to enjoy the internet to the fullest, while at the same time, not offending the people around you."

"Internetiquette" features such helpful tips as #48 ("Flight attendants are not tech support"), tip #10 (helping you figure out which online photos are suitable for flights [SFF] or not suitable for flights [NSFF]), or #134, which advises against taking your laptop into the lavatory to take care of some business.

But perhaps even better are the series of short videos hosted by none other than "Airplane!" star Peter Graves, who speaks about some of the dos and don'ts of in-flight internet use. He even manages to throw in a few jokes from "Airplane!" every now and then in the videos, which can be seen here.

Labels: AirTran

Last week, a music video was posted to YouTube that was every airline PR executive's nightmare: a catchy country-music song, professionally edited with a humorous music video, that was quickly spreading across the internet. Normally this wouldn't be a problem, but the song was called "United Breaks Guitars," by Canadian singer Dave Carroll and his band, Sons of Maxwell, and describes his fight with the airline to receive compensation after United baggage handlers in Chicago damaged his $3,500 Taylor guitar.

In the last week or so, the song/video (which only cost $150 to make) has reached almost three million views on YouTube, gained prime-time exposure on CNN's Situation Room, and was the most popular song at the band's concert last Friday. “Everybody was calling for that song the minute we hit the stage,” Carroll said to Rolling Stone. “It was unbelievable, 1,500 people raising their hands in the air to the ‘United breaks guitars’ tag line in the chorus."

That's got to be causing some serious pain over at United headquarters in Chicago. It's bad enough when a YouTube video critical of your airline (no matter how light-heartedly) garners millions of views; it's even worse when you see that the song has had such success that over a thousand people put their hands in the air to the words of "United breaks guitars." How many of them are going to have that chorus line stuck in their heads at the first mention of United? And how many discussions of the song ("Did you see that video on YouTube?") are going to evolve into discussions about a lack of customer service on United ("You know, I flew with them last April...") ? And it's not over, yet - there are still two more songs on the way.

Obviously, it's hard to blame United for not seeing this particular incident arising. I don't think a case where someone, slighted by an airline, has turned around and released a wildly popular country song about their experiences. But it does highlight some serious customer service policy deficiencies, ones that United is seeking to rectify. As the pictured "tweets" show, United Airlines' PR department has been working hard to respond to comments on Twitter regarding the song, and has said that the video will be used for training, and that they've "apologized for, have fixed, and most importantly, learned from" the mistake, too. Airlines are starting to understand the power of social media - a $150 music video can be more effective than a multi-million dollar Madison Avenue ad campaign.

Perhaps airline reps everywhere now will be thinking in the back of their minds, "Could this turn into a smash YouTube hit?" After all, it worked for Carroll - national attention and a priceless amount of free publicity. Rolling Stone has said that Bob Taylor, of Taylor Guitars, personally phoned and offered Carroll two free guitars of his choice for the second video, while other airlines have reportedly offered him free tickets.

Labels: United Airlines

It seems as though British Airline Pilots Association (BALPA) members are actually buying British Airways CEO Willie Walsh's statements that the airline is facing its largest-ever crisis, since 94% of them voted today in favor of a 2.6% cut in salary, a move that should save the airline £26 million. "We have pressure tested the company's trading position and cost base, and are satisfied that this step is necessary to help BA recover its position as one of the world's most successful airlines," said Jim McAuslan, general secretary of BALPA.

BALPA's agreement to pay cuts is a relief for Walsh, who is going to have a much harder time convincing cabin crew and ground handling staff to take a salary cut. Four weeks of negotiation have failed, and the threat of a strike looms large for the airline. “There is every sign that a conflict is looming if this last throw of the dice does not succeed," said Mick Rix, who heads up the GMB union. The Unite union evidently doesn't buy Walsh's message as BALPA did, saying that "BA’s management are opportunistically using the recession to force through changes which are more far-reaching and damaging to BA’s future.

The pilots have seemed to recognize that the airline's future is at stake during these critical next months. While painting gloom-and-doom pictures has always been a management strategy used to extract concessions from unions, I think that British Airways is genuinely in a "fight for survival," as Walsh put it. Naturally, it was under Walsh's nose that the airline went from making record profits one year to posting record losses the next, and once the dust settles after the current crisis, Walsh might find that he needs to move on. But to be fair, BA is saddled with outdated, expensive labor contracts - ones that need to change, and change in a hurry.

"The problem is that there’s no flexibility with the cabin staff," said Howard Weeldon, a senior strategist at London's BGC Partners LP. "It’s been entrenched for 20 or 30 years... There has to be some form of compromise, because you can’t have an airline without cabin crew and the cabin crew need the jobs. A strike would be very, very foolish and it would only make things much worse.” But unless the cabin and ground staff agree to a reduction in wages, a strike might be just the thing that Walsh finds himself facing later this summer. He's also going to have a difficult day tomorrow, when he addresses BA's shareholders at their annual meeting - and they can't be happy about the fact that the airline has stopped issuing a dividend. The airline has even talked with key shareholders about an emergency rights issue for £500 million, although that would probably be a last-resort option.

Labels: British Airways

The Department of Transportation ignored a recommendation from the Department of Justice that Continental Airlines not be allowed to join nine other Star Alliance carriers in recieving antitrust immunity on international routes, and instead granted it permission earlier today. (Thanks for the heads up from Airline Route.)

The airlines (Air Canada, Austrian, bmi, LOT, Lufthansa, Scandinavian, Swiss, TAP, United and now Continental) can benefit from "limited and carefully considered" antitrust immunity on international routes, saying that "the transaction will not substantially reduce or eliminate competition."

In its ruling, the DOT also stated that the Continental's joining "does not materially alter the competitive landscape or increase overall market share to any significant degree," noting that Continental's move to Star allows for "a more competitive alliance in markets where oneworld or SkyTeam have a strong presence."

The DOT also noted that Continental currently overlaps with other Star carriers in fourteen city-pair markets, but stated that creating "carve outs" (routes that are not covered by the antitrust immunity) would "detract from the efficiencies that the alliance would otherwise create." Existing "carve outs," such as Chicago-Frankfurt, Washington-Frankfurt, San Francisco-Toronto and Chicago-Toronto, are still in effect. As for domestic competition (especially with United), the DOT concluded that "the benefits of the alliance outweigh the comparatively small risk of harm that could occur in domestic markets."

Of course, the whole argument of alliances being good for the consumer only stands if "metal neutrality" is practiced. "Metal neutrality" is when airlines that jointly market services aren't picky about who actually operates the flight (and thus keep more of the revenue). For example, if I wanted to fly from Boston to Frankfurt as seamlessly as possible, I could take a direct Lufthansa flight, or instead fly United through Washington Dulles. If I book my ticket with United Airlines, under "metal neutrality" they'd put me on the Lufthansa flight, even though they'd make much less money than if they put me on their flight through Washington. If things are kept metal-neutral, the DOT argues, then carriers won't spend time worrying about making sure that a passenger flies on their airline; instead, they can work on syncing their flight schedules and sharing financial benefits and losses, which give them incentive to make things as convenient as possible to the passenger.

Labels: Continental Airlines, Lufthansa, Star Alliance, United Airlines

If there's a Canadian airline on the rise, it's definitely WestJet. Originally started in Calgary in 1996, it was originally only going to fly to destinations in western Canada (hence the name). But the airline quickly grew in subsequent years, and is now the second largest airline in Canada (behind Air Canada) and the largest Canadian low-cost carrier. WestJet has, more recently, announced plans to introduce a frequent flier program and has announced a codeshare agreement with Southwest Airlines (another one is in the works with Air France/KLM).

And earlier today, the airline announced what it billed as its "largest-ever seasonal non-stop flight schedule" in the company's history, adding 11 destinations for the winter schedule. Pretty much all of them are warm-weather getaways (Miami, Mexico, Cuba, St. Maarten, etc.) although I was rather surprised to see Atlantic City on the list. Year-round service to Yellowknife from Edmonton and San Diego from Calgary was also added. The airline's transborder and international capacity will increase 45% year over year, compared with just 5% domestically.

"This schedule represents significant expansion on both the transborder (U.S.) and international fronts," said Chris Avery, WestJet's VP, Revenue and Planning. "Both are strategic decisions as we continue to aggressively pursue and earn profitable market share in these critical areas. WestJet is well on its way to becoming the market leader in many of the most popular sun destinations in the U.S., Mexico and the Caribbean."

WestJet also has to be taking advantage of the rather precarious situation that its chief rival, Air Canada, finds itself in. Air Canada has been dealing with less-than-stellar relations with some of its unions, and is trying to avert a possible strike during the 2010 Vancouver Olympics. Any significant labor disruption at Air Canada could be enough to push the airline into bankruptcy for the second time in the past ten years - something that WestJet, which is not a unionized carrier, would be sure to exploit.

Labels: Air Canada, Air France, KLM, Southwest Airlines, WestJet